The CAPA Airline Capacity Model will help:
- Determine likely air capacity flows, both domestic and international and which markets, down to the route level, could require additional government support to be flown if commercially airlines are unable to make them work.
- Gain a total view of capacity profiles, by market, as restrictions are eased, as well as gaining insight into competitor performance.
- Understand aviation market recovery trajectories around the world and the likely size of key markets and clients they serve.
What is the CAPA Air Capacity Projections Model?
CAPA’s new Air Capacity Projections Model is a guide to future air capacity. It is based on a range of criteria and data, updated in real time as the volatile situation changes.
To this extent, there is no attempt to “forecast”, or “predict” outcomes. Things are simply too volatile to be making serious forecasts. At the same time, we recognise a wide range of businesses needs to be making their own assumptions around air travel. To help in this process, CAPA is providing a guide to how capacity levels are likely to develop.
The model is designed to make projections off the starting point of last year’s actual capacity (seats*) in the market. This is then combined with inputs including CAPA’s analysis of government statements and assumptions on airline activity, underlying demand and a range of factors.
In this way we aim to provide baseline data, and a working model for projecting future capacity based on our best assessment of prevailing and future conditions. Individual users are also able to factor in their own specific data to adjust for specific purposes.
How does the Model work?
The CAPA Air Capacity Projections Model applies the six (6) phased air capacity resumption scenarios. It is an interactive, excel-based model that allows users to then view the assumptions around the resumption of travel in domestic (state-based) and international markets, to build the overall capacity picture.