CAPA Air Capacity Projection Model

Monitor the future of air capacity using an interactive excel-based tool.

This model is designed to project likely air capacity flows down to the route level, gain insight into competitor performance and understand market size and recovery trajectories around the world.

Available as a 12-month subscription on a per country basis, the model is updated in real time as the volatile situation evolves. A premium version is also available.

Fill in your details below to request a live demo or learn more. 

FAQs

The CAPA Airline Capacity Model will help:

  • Determine likely air capacity flows, both domestic and international and which markets, down to the route level, could require additional government support to be flown if commercially airlines are unable to make them work.
  • Gain a total view of capacity profiles, by market, as restrictions are eased, as well as gaining insight into competitor performance.
  • Understand aviation market recovery trajectories around the world and the likely size of key markets and clients they serve.

What is the CAPA Air Capacity Projections Model?

CAPA’s new Air Capacity Projections Model is a guide to future air capacity. It is based on a range of criteria and data, updated in real time as the volatile situation changes.

To this extent, there is no attempt to “forecast”, or “predict” outcomes. Things are simply too volatile to be making serious forecasts. At the same time, we recognise a wide range of businesses needs to be making their own assumptions around air travel. To help in this process, CAPA is providing a guide to how capacity levels are likely to develop.

The model is designed to make projections off the starting point of last year’s actual capacity (seats*) in the market. This is then combined with inputs including CAPA’s analysis of government statements and assumptions on airline activity, underlying demand and a range of factors.

In this way we aim to provide baseline data, and a working model for projecting future capacity based on our best assessment of prevailing and future conditions. Individual users are also able to factor in their own specific data to adjust for specific purposes.

How does the Model work?

The CAPA Air Capacity Projections Model applies the six (6) phased air capacity resumption scenarios. It is an interactive, excel-based model that allows users to then view the assumptions around the resumption of travel in domestic (state-based) and international markets, to build the overall capacity picture.

What inputs are included within in Air Capacity Projections Model? 

  • Actual 2019 baseline capacity data, drawn from OAG schedules and aircraft configuration data in the CAPA Fleet database;
  • Decisions and announcements by the Prime Minister and State Premiers on travel restrictions and border announcements;
  • Assessments by CAPA, based on real time reports from CAPA’s unique daily news system, which collects 300+ stories daily, on:
  • Operating airlines and known airline route plans;
  • Expectations of pricing, reflecting the public’s willingness and propensity to fly;
  • The introduction of standard criteria on sanitary conditions onboard aircraft and at airports;
  • ‘Right-sizing’ of aircraft to match demand.
  • The airline capacity projections are updated in real time, as major new events occur.

What if I disagree with CAPA’s findings?

If users disagree with the outcomes, users can change the input assumptions to drive their own outputs and develop a narrative accordingly.

Does the Model provide projections at an airport and route level?

Yes, the model for every country we cover builds off city pair data which allows the Model to demonstrate projections on routes, which we then aggregate by Airport and Country. Tables are presented for Airport and Route data and the overall country picture is shown graphically.

Which markets will the Model cover?

Air Capacity Projection Models are now available for Australia, New Zealand, China, UK, Germany and France. The US will also be released shortly, followed by India, South Korea, Japan and several other of the largest 20 aviation markets globally. For any other specific region requests, please fill in your details via the enquiry form above or contact membership@centreforaviation.com